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Great Market of opportunities
Before the Financial breakdown appears
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There are very rare times in which markets react within a given and predictable framework. We are now in such a period, where one can place bets with a reduced risk of failure. This is the consequence of the central banks and governments actions in the past, which now limit them to take required actions. Those players are now like boxers in their corners, trying to get out.
I must say it is completely amazing. Things worked out exactly as I had started in 2007 when I began to report and predict the events of this crisis on Youtube. I remember one of my first videos where I explained to the mainly American audience that I expect Spain to be the cornerstone of the puzzle which might bring down everything at a certain point of time. Now, 2010 it appears events are unfolding as I had outlined in 2007.
Today Portugal collapsed in the bond auction. It could not sell its debt. We know Greece kicked-off the Domino day, which now reached Spain. (This is what I had been predicting for weeks in this blog)
When the Spanish inefficiency bubble is bursting, I don’t want to be near the Euro nor the Dollar, nor do I want to have my wealth in a bank account. The cracks which will go through Europe will soon reach the global banking sector. Nothing what is on paper will be certain to maintain its value.
Some investors believe that shorting US treasuries might be a no brainer, but I believe this is wrong. There are much better deals out there, in a much shorter run. Greece was one. Portugal was another. Italy is still not in the focus and Spain has been cooked today, as it CDS spreads widened dramatically.
But shorting US treasuries is risky, because at a certain point of time, this game comes to an abrupt end. There are no resources left to fight a banking crisis or a breakdown of the system. The US might choose to act outside the normal framework. Therefore it could well be that paper positions get wiped out completely.
One should therefore understand and plan for a back-up strategy. Strategies in times of systematic crisis need to be slightly different, than in times of non crisis (normal).
tags:Investing, crisis investing, bonds, bond collapse, greece, portugal, ireland, spain, Trichet, ECB, germany,
Posted in: Financial Crisis
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IMHO they are doing nothing about it, and the other day Trichet refused to talk about Spain & Portugal.
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Joerns answer:
The ECB is instrumental to the governments
I have been following this blog and video blog for some time now and I find it all very interesting. The analyses are impeccable. However, as it says in the title of this article, there are "great opportunities” and I’ve heard you mention that several times before. The only snag is, I never see any mention of any strategy and/or opportunity outlined, so far. It is wonderful to analyse things correctly and it would be even better to tell us, mere mortals, exactly how to deal with this mess without losing our pants in the process, let alone profiting from it.
I wish you a good morning, good luck and if you drink coffee, enjoy your coffee. s"
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Joerns answer
I had done this back in 2007/2008 but figgured out that I had to make to short term changes, than to allow people to benefit by understanding what I was doing. So I decided not to publish my investing strategies any longer.
Said so: a sure thing to bet on are gvt. bailouts
Greece is Bear stearns
Sain is Lehman
I am new to your website which i learnt about from you tube. I have a question on the 'Great Market Opportunities', in the expected scenario, those countries that can print their own money will of course and this will delay collapse but will create high inflation so i would go gold/silver to preseve wealth, but in the next 5 or 6 months the crisis will send more people running to the dollar (as this is one of a bad bunch of fiat currencies) this will send the dollar index higher, but what will happen to gold and silver when this happens? Thank you
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In Euro terms it will go higher as well